2026 Box-Office Predictions: 'Dhurandhar 2,' 'Ramayana,' 'King' and More

The year 2023 created history at the box-office with Hindi cinema earning ₹5,380 crores (gross), crossing the ₹5,000 crore mark for the first time. If everything falls into place, this year, 2026 could match or even surpass that to become the biggest year Indian cinema has ever seen. At least on paper.

The release calendar is stacked in a way the industry hasn’t seen in years. Stars such as Rajinikanth, Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Ranbir Kapoor, Ranveer Singh, Ajay Devgn, Yash, Vijay, Prabhas, Deepika Padukone, Alia Bhatt, Shraddha Kapoor, Nayanthara and Kiara Advani are all slated to deliver tentpole films in the same year.

There are mythological epics (Ramayana), mega-franchises (Drishyam 3, Dhurandhar 2, Jailer 2, Border 2), war dramas (Battle of Galwan, Fauzi), pan-India spectacles and star-driven crowd-pleasers (King, Toxic, Love and War, The Raja Saab, Jana Nayagan) all jostling for space.

The Hollywood Reporter India spoke to industry insiders and trade experts, who agree that the sheer density of big titles gives 2026 an unprecedented advantage — but there’s also caution baked into that optimism. As Shailesh Kapoor, founder and chief executive officer, Ormax Media puts it, “A great slate alone doesn’t guarantee a historic year. The audience base hasn’t fundamentally expanded yet. If that doesn’t change, the upside is capped.”

Still, if the films land big, 2026 could reset benchmarks across openings, lifetime grosses and global box-office potential.

The Record Breakers

At the top sits Ramayana. Mounted on a reported budget north of ₹4,000 crores for both instalments, the film is directed by Nitesh Tiwari and led by Ranbir Kapoor as Ram, KGF star Yash as Ravana and Sai Pallavi as Sita. It’s being positioned as India’s most ambitious cinematic project yet.

Trade insiders believe Ramayana, locked for a Diwali release with a worldwide IMAX rollout, and score by Hans Zimmer and A.R. Rahman, isn’t just a domestic bet — it’s a global one.

“This is the one film that could dismantle every record we currently know, opening day, lifetime, overseas,” says senior exhibitor Raj Bansal. “If the execution matches the scale, it’s not competing with Hindi films anymore but with global

event cinema.”

Dhurandhar 2, the sequel to Aditya Dhar’s 2025 spy-action juggernaut, is also billed as a potential record breaker. With Ranveer Singh returning and sky-high expectations, the sequel is seen as a near-guaranteed blockbuster. “After Part One completes its theatrical run, it will come to streaming by February, and then in March, the sequel will release. The timing couldn’t have been better,” notes an industry insider.

Shah Rukh Khan’s King, reuniting him with Pathaan director Siddharth Anand, also sits firmly in the top tier. After his once-in-a-generation comeback in 2023 —where Pathan, Jawan and Dunki grossed over ₹2,500 crores worldwide — expectations have fundamentally changed.

“He can open any film at a monstrous level. King has the potential to break several records,” says a distributor, adding that the makers are eyeing a September to December release.

Completing this bracket are Love and War and Drishyam 3. Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Love and War, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Alia Bhatt and Vicky Kaushal, sits in a rare, sweet spot: prestige cinema with mass appeal, mounted on Bhansali’s signature massive scale. Meanwhile, Drishyam remains one of the rare franchises where audiences are genuinely invested in the story. If the narrative delivers another twist-heavy thriller, the franchise could still surprise on the upside.

Opening Weekend Warriors

The next tier promises thunderous openings and sustained runs in the North Indian market.

Two Prabhas films — Fauzi and The Raja Saab — are expected to dominate regardless of genre. Post-Baahubali and Salaar, Prabhas remains one of the most reliable draws in North India. “He has a built-in audience that shows up on day one. His fans come from both South and North; that’s a rare, unmatched feat,” notes Bansal.

Yash’s Toxic: A Fairy Tale for Grown-Ups, his first release after the blockbuster KGF: Chapter 2, is another wildcard. The highly guarded story has only added to curiosity.

Patriotic spectacles also loom large. Sunny Deol’s Border 2, the first big Hindi outing of the year, carries enormous emotional and nostalgic value, amplified further by Deol’s post-Gadar 2 resurgence. If sentiment, timing, and chartbuster music align, Deol might repeat his 2023 comeback magic.

Then there’s Salman Khan’s Battle of Galwan, expected to open big on his star value alone. Based on the bestselling book, Battle of Galwan, the film is directed by Apoorva Lakhia. It chronicles the 2020 Galwan Valley confrontation; Khan portrays Colonel Bikumalla Santosh Babu. While his recent films have underperformed — including Tiger 3 (2023) — few doubt his opening-day draw.

Wildcard Entries

Akshay Kumar is leaning back into comedy with Welcome to the Jungle and Bhoot Bangla. After a mixed few years, trade analysts feel comedy remains Kumar’s safest zone. Also in the race: Kartik Aaryan’s Naagzilla and Emraan Hashmi’s Awarapan 2 — not tentpoles, but films with immense mainstream breakout potential.

For all the optimism, there’s a structural ceiling the industry hasn’t cracked: the audience base. “Even in a great year, you’re largely selling to the same people,” says Kapoor. “At best, they’ll watch one extra film. That’s where the 10 to 15 per cent growth comes from.”

The real hurdle lies in pricing. Discounted ticket strategies and aggressive pre-release offers have repeatedly shown spikes in footfalls, but the effort remains inconsistent. “One film capping ticket price doesn’t change habits,” says Kapoor. “It needs to be sustained across the industry.”

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